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| Maidan demonstration, Kyiv 2014 |
Exactly one year ago today Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Of course I sprang into 'action', and wrote a blog post, entitled The Darkest Day. There didn't seem much else to be done, and to be honest, at the time the outcome seemed inevitable, that outcome being the rapid conquest and subjugation of Ukraine, and its elimination as an independent nation. Quite surprisingly, that blog post became my 'most read' ever ( with the exception of one other post that had been previously 'nobbled' by a bot attack ). I had expressed myself pretty strongly, and I wondered if I would attract hostile reactions, even attacks, on the blog - I'm glad to say that didn't happen, and there were many supportive comments. I've just been re-reading the post, and I stand by everything I said.
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| Pro-democracy protestor Yevhen Shulga, 2014 |
Of course there was a very unexpected outcome: the Russian invasion failed. Ukraine's defence forces fought bravely and successfully, and gave Putin a massive shock; Western nations have rallied in Ukraine's support and provided arms and equipment to Ukraine. Despite many thousands of casualties both military and civilian, despite thousands of war crimes inflicted by the Russia's deliberate targeting of the civilians they claim to be 'liberating', Ukraine fights on, has had victories, and has regained territory. The cost has been terrible, but I entirely understand Ukraine's willingness to pay that cost and keep fighting, and I think we in the West need to support our governments in supporting Ukraine. Freedom is at stake; Putin now says he is fighting a war against the West, so perhaps we have little choice.
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| Battle damage to Ukrainian homes, 2022 |
As before, I am not going to get into nerdy discussions of the fighting and whether they should have done X, Y or Z - there are too many armchair generals already, I'm sure. But there is of course much worthwhile analysis available - I would highlight the Royal United Services Institute, which for example has a summary today entitled The War In Ukraine One Year On . I've also been recently recommended a 'Substack' blog , Comment is Freed, a joint effort by political commentatior Sam Freedman and his father, the military historian Lawrence Freedman, whose recent piece The Storm Before The Calm makes interesting reading. Regarding the effect on those of us not directly involved in the fighting, political journalist Andrew Marr recently wrote a chilling ( but realistic, I'm afraid ) piece which should give us all plenty to consider : The war in Ukraine will go on for years – and so will its consequences for Britain. Also Steve Rosenberg, the BBC's man in Moscow has been consistently interesting ( and sobering for those who might think the Russian population will not support Putin ), his latest piece about How Putin's fate is tied to Russia's war raises some scary possibilities ( civil war in a nuclear-armed power? ).
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| burial of victims of Russian occupation, Bucha 2022 |
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| Yevhen Shulga, now Ukrainian soldier, 2022 |
I'll get back to hobby stuff next time; meanwhile I think it's worth a pause to reflect. Keep well, everyone.
Our local Smiths did a one minute silence at 11AM.
ReplyDeleteThanks Norm - I guess a silence is another way of getting people to think abou the situation. Were you buying a wargames magazine..?
DeleteIt is difficult to find something rational to say in this context, so please accept my compliments on an elegant summary. In the irrational department, I have to say that I am convinced that Putin dare not lose, so I expect a nuclear ultimatum to the West quite soon. Much too heavy for me, man. I am pleased to see that China is instructing him to keep the head, at least a little.
ReplyDeleteThank you very much, Tony. You raise another scary aspect of all this - I have added a link to Steve Rosenberg's recent piece on the possible fate of Putin. I hope that China's leadership has the wisdom to counsel against widler courses of action.
DeleteVery interesting post and some very informative links too. Top stuff.
ReplyDeleteThanks JBM, I think it's worthwhile to try to keep informed, grim though the situation may be.
DeleteJust returned to re-read my comments on the original post and I don't think my views have changed significantly. The war has gone on much longer than expected by most people, I imagine.
ReplyDeleteThe Ukrainians seem unlikely to compromise to achieve peace (and many would not blame them) but given the time that has passed, I think it's clear they will not be getting any NATO troops on the ground to help them. The Russian population in general seems ambivalent to the war - 20% in favour, 20% against, 60% "don't know" (my figures). so, any ideas of an internal revolt or overthrow of Putin also seems unlikely - I think the view that the conflict may drag on and on like the Israeli/Palestinian situation or some of the forgotten (by the West) wars in Africa, is the most likely prognosis.
The Western presses black and white, hyperbole laden reporting also gets on my nerves a bit - if the Russians are committing war crimes and genocide in Ukraine, what did "our" Coalition armies do in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan....? I know two wrongs don't make a right, but it does irritate me a bit. (And I am not saying I was against those wars, necessarily, it's just the hypocrisy of our Western world view I find annoying)
OK I better stop before people think I support Putin, which I don't! (I studied politics and international relations forty years ago, so I do find this type of thing fascinating)
Thanks Keith, intersting thoughts. I agree most people assumed it would all be over in days - the Ukrainian people suprised everyone, not least the Russains. For them it would clearly be very difficult to compromise, given what has been done to them, the fact that Putin denies their right to even exist as a country, and that he cannot be trusted to stand by any 'agreement'. So indeed, unless the West deserts them or the Russians defeat them, I assume the war goes on.
DeleteIndeed I agree about Iraq, Afghanistan etc - those Western 'adventures' are coming back to bite the Americans and British especially. I was interested to read a piece on the American approach to supplying Ukraine with weapons - it seems they have learned from Afghanistan and are simply providing hardware and intelligence and mostly allowing the Ukrainians to use them as they wish, rather than trying to direct the entire organisation and doctrine of their forces, which so spectacularly failed in Afghanistan.
My final thought is - what if the Russians 'win'? They would gain possession of a ruined country with a population of 40 million who vehemently hate them, many of whom will remain armed. The resulting insurgency might dwarf their experience in Afghanistan 1979-1989. I admit, none of the likely outcomes looks good - we can only wait and see.
With you all the way on this David.
ReplyDeleteWish there was something practical I could do.
Chris/Nundanket
Thanks Chris. Yes I do wonder about what ordinary folk can do. Of course there are various charities etc providing various kinds of aid - and I take my hat off to those who have housed Ukrainian refugees ( such as blogger 'Elenderil' ). We can try to speak up if our government looks to be deserting Ukraine.
DeleteAny danger of getting called up for the Finnish army? :)
Still and uncomfortable subject bit support here seems to be strong. Some of that may because there are so many Canadians with Ukrainian roots (about 4%), some because of memories of the cold war and partly because we share a border with Russia. (Its a largely uninhabited area of ice and frozen islands but as the world heats up the ice is already receding and there are a few arctic islands that are emerging from the ice where there is a theoretical land border! Who knew when I was a kid? )
ReplyDeleteWant to or not we are once again threatened with 'living in Interesting times'.
Thanks Ross, that's interesting about Canadian/Ukrainians. I bet there are people in your government doing some very hard thinking about the proximity of Russian territory - and I bet the Americans are mighty glad they bought Alaska 'back in the day'...
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